Lotfi A. Zadeh WSEAS

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Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
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Most real-world probabilities are not known precisely. And yet,
standard probability theory--the kind of probability theory that is
taught in courses on probability theory--stops short of addressing the
issue of computation with imprecise probabilities. There is an
explanation: computation with imprecise probabilities is beyond the
reach of standard probability theory. Here are simple test problems.
1. Most UA flights from San Francisco leave on time. What is the
probability that my flight will be delayed?
2. A box contains about 20 balls of various sizes. Most are small. A
few
are large. What is the probability that a ball drawn at random is
neither small nor large?
3. X is a real-valued random variable. What is known about X is:
(a)Usually X is much larger than approximately a; and (b)Usually X is
much smaller than approximately b, with a less than b. What is the
expected value of X?


Regards to all,


Lotfi


--
Lotfi A. Zadeh
Professor in the Graduate School
Director, Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC)
Tel.(office): (510) 642-4959
Fax (office): (510) 642-1712